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8.0.4.2 Is Progress Real?Version 1.1 August 2014                              (Previous Version) Many of us have difficulty seeing signs of progress, and there are vested interest groups who manipulate our perceptions: · Psychologically we focus more on potential negatives than positives. Commercial mass media profits by gaining the widest audience possible, and uses horror stories attract audiences. In Chapter 5.2 we conclude that media responsibility and regulation is required to minimise these adverse trends. · Politicians aspiring for office, in opposition or in minor parties, community service groups seeking funding, and even businesses seeking subsidies or protection from competition, all have a vested interest in telling how bad things are. But things are not as bad as they seem. · Part 3 (History) shows that improvements in communications and the spread of freedom of expression mean oppression, exploitation and corruption are more likely to be exposed. o Once exposed, science tells us our core human nature will react with a desire to right the wrongs, which can be realised in the rule of law. o History shows that social movements – from mutinies, armed rebellion and revolutions to peaceful demonstrations – can lead to regime change as well as legislative change. o Mixed economies and liberal democracies promote both these outcomes. · History also shows that societies can collapse as a result of mismanagement by the elites, when they over extend their resource usage so that they can't accommodate challenges that may be rare but are inevitable, such as war, disease and environmental or economic crises. o Our global society faces several such crises now. There is no guarantee that our global leaders will adequately address these issues. There is evidence that they will react too late, too slowly, too selfishly and too indecisively. o Excessively free market capitalism increases inequality, hinders productivity growth, causes inefficient use of resources and waste, and fails to address social problems. o Democracies must allow civil society to temper the potential tyranny of the majority and the cynical manipulation of the electorate by vested interests. o There is an opportunity for global movements to have an increased impact on national and global leaders, so there are still grounds for hope. 8.0.4.2 Hope for Historical Progress It is reasonable to hope that political forces promoting sustainability will prevail. ●        Our hope need not be blind. There is a major risk of a global environmental disaster, there is very high risk of ongoing global financial crises, and there are other risks of war, disease, and famine. But there are actions we can take to reduce these risks and mitigate their effects, so there is still hope. ●        As communications improve inequalities and irresponsible leadership will be more exposed, and those valuing life and love more aware and more motivated, to make the personal changes required and to address our political crises. ●        Increased prosperity and improvements in communications, promoted in mixed economies and liberal democracies are the basis of our reasonable hope.
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