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8.0.2.2 Acting Despite UncertaintyVersion 1.3 December 2016                                       (Previous Version) There is no in principle reason why life should be simple. Life is complex. We must allow for, and live with, ambiguity and uncertainty. As explained in Part 2 (Science), Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle says that for the smallest possible particles, the more accurately we know where they are the less accurately we know which way they are going, and vice versa. Too many people overestimate the significance of this, to say that consequently we can never know everything, so they suggest we effectively know nothing!  However, the Uncertainty Principle is restricted to individual events on a very small scale, and on a large scale over many events the universe becomes very predictable. Our core values, developed in Part 1 (Philosophy), reflect our choices in the face of unresolvable dilemmas. Our derived, effecting and ancillary values, developed in Parts 2 to 5 as we discuss science, history, religion and art, similarly reflect choices we make based on potentially flawed arguments. As we develop our personal and political guidelines in Parts 6 and 7 we explicitly address the need, in our uncertainty, to balance one value against the other. Here we need to see acting in the face of uncertainty in perspective, as part of our vision of a reasonable global way. For though we make choices, with some uncertainty, we must not allow ourselves to be paralysed by ongoing analysis when action is urgent, and we must see that acting in uncertainty is a far cry from acting in ignorance or out of negligence. We can often be reasonably confident that our choices and our actions are justifiable. Bertrand Russell, the famous 20th century English philosopher, said that when the experts disagree, lay people should have no opinion. This is wise advice for situations in which the disagreement is “academic” and the question at hand has no real impact on our lives. For instance, scientists disagree on whether one of the many versions of string theory is valid. Some argue that since string theory makes no falsifiable predictions it is not science at all. So far as most of us are concerned, it doesn’t matter. It may be enjoyable for some of us to learn about and even participate in the debate, but it makes no difference to our lives, so it is best for us to have no firm opinion. On the other hand, sometimes we are forced into a situation where we must choose how we should act when the facts of the case are uncertain, or our understanding of the facts is uncertain, or the best minds in the world disagree on how to interpret the situation. In these situations we must make a choice, despite the uncertainties, and implicitly act as though certain facts are true and that a specific interpretation of those facts is most appropriate, so that we can make our choices based on our values. For instance, though there is no scientific or moral certainty regarding when a foetus becomes human, a woman considering whether to abort an unwanted pregnancy must decide, perhaps in a few days or weeks, her effective position on complex moral, medical, social, religious, personal and political issues, all of which involve unknowns. Despite the inevitable ambiguity and uncertainty, we are often forced to make choices and act. 8.0.2.2 When the evidence is ambiguous, and supports alternative theories, then so far as is practical we must live with uncertainty and avoid unreasonable preference for one theory over another. But sometimes we must act, or choose not to act, in situations when there is considerable uncertainty.  We are forced to act as though we accept one alternative over another, and we can use various guidelines to minimize our risk of error. more (later)
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