0.4.7 Global Beliefs: Assertive Declarations

Version 1.0 March 2013                                Previous Version

Many people are wary of stating their beliefs assertively, for fear of being wrong.  We aren’t.

In these pages we focus on the conclusions we reach, based on reason and the evidence, and the values we adopt in the face of these conclusions.  We know they are subject to change, but we see too many people mired in confusion. We need a positive assertion of reasonable beliefs. 

On the other hand, many learned people, especially philosophers and scientists, are so aware of the limitations of their knowledge that they phrase their conclusions too cautiously. 

·       This allows others with a vested interest in denying the truth to emphasise the uncertainty.  For instance the tobacco industry pays scientists who emphasise all the uncertainties they can find in the science to cast doubt on the reasonable belief that smoking tobacco causes cancer and other diseases.  This evil practice causes millions of unnecessary early deaths.

·       It also allows those who are too lazy to focus on fundamental issues to assert that nothing is certain, and reach the false conclusion that nothing is knowable, so no action is required.

Conclusions followed by Justifications

We assert our conclusions “top down”, so it is easier to understand the point we're making.

In many books on philosophy, science, history and religion, it's hard to work out what the point is.  Here we try to state the main point clearly up front, then give supporting reasons.

Some people will think that stating the conclusion ahead of the evidence indicates that the conclusion is being asserted dogmatically, and we then go looking for supporting evidence.  This is not at all what happens here. 

We are presenting the ‘executive summary’ first.

·       We could have chosen to present the evidence first then explain our conclusions. 

·       Documenting all the evidence, to persuade others to reach the same conclusions, is a huge exercise because lots of evidence is available.  This is an ongoing task, always incomplete.

·       But many are familiar with this evidence and won’t want to wade through it again.

·       Others have come to the same conclusions but don’t care about the detailed evidence.

·       And time constraints mean we have to get to the point, and select what we present.

So here we present the “conclusions” before the reasons and the evidence, because:

1.     It enables those who already agree with some of the conclusions to skip the details;

2.     It makes it obvious what point is being discussed.

3.     It forces us to structure the justification for each conclusion.

Constant Revision:

Nevertheless, this set of conclusions is continually being refined.  They will be modified as the detailed supporting analysis is written up, and as we receive feedback on our errors. 

The current set of conclusions is presented “as is” for discussion and comment. 

That’s why we have version numbers and publication dates.