3.7.6 Social Trends

Version 1.0 November 2020                                        (Previous Version)

This section covers social trends, while avoiding the party political aspects covered in Section 3.7.5 on Political Trends.  It covers changes in sexual relationships, family life, work life, social media and communities.

Although there remain many conservative societies, mainly dominated by traditional Christian and Islamic beliefs and practices, overall societies are becoming more tolerant of diversity, especially in women’s roles, gender and sexual preferences, religious freedom, dress codes and so on.  These trends continue to liberate people from unnecessary, unhelpful restrictions.  At the same time it is possible that societies will be able to see what social constraints are really necessary and helpful, to maintain order and security, and promote prosperity, despite the current predominance of fake news, false conspiracy theories and fear mongering.

The roles of parents looking after children will inevitably be affected by all the other historical trends.  Infants should be sheltered from social media and screen based devices.  Older children will be more connected, but still need to have a stable home life with sensible discipline, as well as protection from trolls.  The roles of adult children looking after aging parents – childering – will also change as medical technology improves and productivity advances allow societies to devote more resources to aged care, both at home and in care centres, that need not be restricted to the aged.

Social media currently provides not just remote and continuous connection with others, but also provides distribution channels for fake news, trolls, conspiracy theorists, online harassment and stalking and so on.  The highly profitable social media companies can be forces to use some of their income to mediate and moderate misinformation and social harm.

At present, for most adults, work or the lack of it dominates our waking hours and structures most of our time.  This includes housework, parenting and childering, as well as the production of goods and delivery of services.  As automation continues, and the population eventually declines, the amount of work required to provide healthy, engaging and prosperous lives will inevitably decrease.  There is a need to provide universal services, such as education, health, accommodation and legal services, for the many who, through no fault of their own, cannot have sufficiently rewarded work.  (Universal services are more effective and efficient than the mooted universal income, but still, in the immediate term, access to ‘unemployment benefits’ should be much less restricted than it is now.)  There is also a need to ensure work is distributed better, and for the unlimited centralisation of capital to be constrained.  These proposals could have a major positive impact on the lives of all workers.

Similarly, urban design, which has for the last few hundred years been focussed on providing workers to mines, farms, factories and offices will need to be updated for the new reality, of more automated mines, farms, factories and offices, less need for workers to produce physical goods, more services in health, education and recreation.  Warehouses and supermarkets are becoming more automated.  Driverless cars and trucks will reduce the demand for delivery drivers and taxi services.  Many countries already have declining populations, and all countries should share in reducing the world’s population to bring about less drain on its natural resources.  After the covid-19 pandemic, telecommuting – working from home – will be more prevalent for ‘knowledge workers’.  Efficient delivery of housing, in tower blocks and denser suburbs, will become less of a driver of urban design.  Communities can be focussed on education, sports, culture and recreation, providing social connections rather than products, and overall a decrease in service delivery.

We cover social trends under these headings:

1. Statistical Trends:	What do the current statistics tell us?	Is it reasonable to break down this area into these topics at this level? Click on feedback, or add a comment below, to tell us if you agree or disagree, or suggest improvements.
2. Relationships:	Will sexual freedom lead to social disintegration?
3. Family Life:	Will parenting and childering change over time?
4. Work Life:	How will automation affect our work lives?
5. Social Media:	Can the online world become less destructive?
6. Communities:	Will local communities still be relevant?
7. Grounds for Hope:	Can our social lives improve over time?

This is the current summary of our conclusions in this area: