1.1.9 Mystery and Confidence

Version 1.3 March 2013                                (Previous Version)

Although we firmly acknowledge that the underlying Truth is indeed mysterious, we must also acknowledge that we can be quite confident about some beliefs and values.

1.1.9.1 The Mystery of the Truth

We need to remind ourselves that we have to face the awful “Dilemma of Truth�:

We cannot really know what the truth is. 

This is not a practical outcome arising because we don't have enough resources or time.  It is inescapable, because our beliefs must be either caused or uncaused (ie random or chaotic).

At the same time:

We all firmly believe that some things are true; and:

We all make decisions on what to do based on what we believe is true. 

We can't get out of this dilemma– no-one can.  No religion, science or philosophy solves it.

This sense of Truth is amazing – it inspires awe.

But being uncertain is also upsetting – awful. 

We have to live with it, perhaps as an everlasting mystery

Even within the practical areas of science we are amazed by the size and complexity of the universe.  When we contemplate the majesty of mountains or canyons, the might of the sea, the intricacy of biochemical processes, the complexity of brains, we can't help but sometimes feel wonder and awe.

The truth – the concept – and what is true – the content – is wonderfully mysterious.

 

1.1.9.2 Confidence in the Truth

Despite fundamental doubts and uncertainty there are many positive things that we can reasonably believe.  We work through what these beliefs are as we go through each section.

Truth is what is effective for us, but it is not all relative.  We may have a legal right to hold whatever opinion we like, but it would be stupid to hold any belief at random, without justification.  We must of course be patient with the young and those whose intellectual capacity, experience or education is limited.  But uninformed opinion is not as valid as considered opinion.  The more we choose to participate in public discussion on an issue, the more we are obliged to learn more about it.

This is not to say that we must kowtow to supposed experts.  We must have the courage, and it must be socially acceptable, for non-specialists to ask the experts to explain themselves, whether they be accountants, doctors, lawyers, scientists, historians or clerics.

Truth has a social dimension.  It isn't just something I do with myself.  It is a shared goal, found by sharing our perceptions of reality and the language we use to describe it to each other and ourselves. 

We share our public reality.  We all have the sense that there is a solid earth beneath the sky and that people matter.  We debate what the truth is in politics and business and daily life.

And this shared debate, listening to experts, querying their analyses, discussing the issues in the media and with friends, family, colleagues and strangers, increases our confidence in our position.

Science is a communal exercise, involving collaboration in designing, conducting and analyzing experiments, peer review of results and their publication in journals, and ongoing review.  Science explicitly addresses uncertainty: the error inherent in measurement, experimenter bias, confidence levels in statistical results, and so on.  Falsifiability gives us confidence, when a theory has not been falsified, despite many attempts.

Excessive doubt, where we become full of uncertainty, causes confusion and despair.  But we can analyze our doubt and often we can quantify it. When we become confident of our area of doubt, and know its limits, we lose some of the confusion and despair.  So it is essential for us to learn about the doubts we have in philosophy, science, history and religion. 

Philosophic and scientific uncertainty doesn’t mean we know nothing. 

On the other hand, while confidence in our informed opinions and knowledge is laudable, we need to ensure that we don’t become over confident.  We must remain humble.  It’s a balance, and good friends will tell us when we step too far over the line.